A stochastic simulation model of brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus ives) growth, movement, and survival in Galveston Bay, Texas
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Abstract
A stochastic simulation model of brown shrimp (P. aztecus Ives) population dynamics in Galveston Bay, Texas, is described, validated, and used to evaluate the effects of management alternatives and changing environmental conditions on shrimp dynamics. The model is composed of submodels representing: (1) recruitment, (2) growth, (3) natural mortality, (4) fishing mortality, and (5) emigration of brown shrimp. The model predicts significant changes in total annual harvest from the food shrimp, bait and recreational fisheries resulting from (1) closure of the bay system to all fishing except during the spring and fall open seasons, (2) two-week postponement of the opening and closing of the open seasons for the food shrimp fishery. (3) a 2.5 degree C increase and (4) a 2.5 degree C decrease in mean water temperature, (5) and 80% increase and (6) an 80% decrease in fishing effort