A simulation model for studying effects of pollution and freshwater inflow on secondary productivity in an ecosystem

Operations research methodology is used to develop a mathematical model of the Galveston Bay, Texas, ecosystem. Secondary productivity, measured by harvestable spp (such as fish, crabs, and shrimp), is evaluated in terms of man-related and controllable factors, such as quantity and quality of inlet fresh water and pollutants. The simulation type model uses information from an existing physical parameters model as well as pertinent biological measurements. One of the purposes of the model is to provide predictive information of value to those responsible for estuarine management. Results are of major benefit in pollution control and fisheries management in estuarine systems, particularly those which have migrating spp, which include fish (menhaden (Brevoortia), trout (Salmo), bass (Roccus labiax), croaker (Scianidae) for example), shrimp, and crabs. Another objective is to identify those biological, chemical, and physical parameters that should be measured in order to develop models for similar ecosystems. The Galveston Bay, Texas, is a highly productive temperate-zone ecosystem that has been subjected to man-related stresses. There are extensive historical biological data and analyses available as well as chemical and physical parameters models of the ecosystem. This indepth information is highly desirable for the modeling of an ecosystem