Assessment of coastal responses to projected sea level rise: Galveston Island and Bay, Texas. Draft.

This paper describes a study of the geomorphic effects of projected sea level rise on low-lying coastal landforms along southeast Galveton Bay, Texas. Coastal modifications are evaluated for a range of projected sea level rise rates (baseline, low, medium and high) at particular time periods (2025 and 2075). The objective is to determine the coastal change in response to various assumed sea level increases by thes particular dates. Three categories of physical responses are addressed: (1) shoreline changes, (2) changes in storm surge levels, and (3) ground-water changes. This report first describes briefly the physical characteristics of the study area and then discusses in detail the projected shoreline responses to various EPA-derived sea level scenarios, the possible changes in storm surge levels that may be anticipated in each case, and lastly, any potential effects on local aquifers.