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Description:
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This paper analyzes a deterministic model of the 1988 epizootic of Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV ) among the harbor seal population in the Wadden Sea locality . Modification to the standard SIR model is necessary as oceanic contaminants further complicate the dynamics of the disease . Specifically , the influence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs ) on the seals' main food source is considered . Numerical calibration with this model is conducted with current data . An analysis of the long -term effects of the epizootic is studied and the findings indicate that consideration of uptake through the food chain is not sufficient in suggesting that PCB had a direct effect on the outcome of the epizootic . Additional factors such as immuno -suppressive effects and acute toxicity need to be examined further . |