A knowledge-based decision support system for managerial problem recognition and diagnosis

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Title: A knowledge-based decision support system for managerial problem recognition and diagnosis
Author: Ata Mohamed, Nassar H
Abstract: Current decision support systems lack in providing support for the early phases of decision making (i .e . , problem finding and problem diagnosis ) . This research develops a conceptual model for managerial problem recognition and diagnosis , develops a system architecture , implements a prototype system based on a computer -based simulated management game , and tests the prototype with a set of problems . The conceptual model is based on Pounds' model of problem finding and Sage's model of cognitive processing . The conceptual model consists of a problem finding component (Monitor ) that detects deviations in specified variables , and a problem processor . The problem processor supports routine diagnoses (that have occurred in the past ) through the experiential knowledge base . New problem diagnosis is supported through several processes such as construction of causation trees , hypotheses generation , hypotheses evaluation , verification of diagnosis , and statistical verification of user's models . The elements of the full system architecture consist of a User Interface , Performance Monitor , Security System , Monitor for Problem Detection , Problem Processor , Structural Model Knowledge Base , System Dictionary , and a Process Controller . In the prototype implementation , the components Performance Monitor and Security System were not included ; also the problem processor implementation did not include the component for statistical verification of the user's models . Structural modeling was used for knowledge representation since it allows representation of causal relations among variables , which is important in business problem domains . Results show the technical feasibility of the approach and confirm the view of some researchers that perhaps the domain of business problems requires more than one method of knowledge representation . Results also indicate that the quality of diagnosis depends on the quality of the model from which diagnosis is inferred . These results were discussed in relation to the type of models for which the approach is appropriate and new questions for future research were proposed .
URI: http : / /hdl .handle .net /2346 /15957
Date: 1985-08

Citation

A knowledge-based decision support system for managerial problem recognition and diagnosis. Master's thesis, Texas Tech University. Available electronically from http : / /hdl .handle .net /2346 /15957 .

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