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Description:
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The manner in which the United States understands the background , motivations , and
aspirations of the participants in the Arab Spring within the Maghreb Region will have
significant implications for the development of future National Security Policy .
In an effort to better quantify this understanding , this work presents an analysis of the
following three alternative scenarios : 1 ) The Arab Spring leads to internal conflict and
Regime Change of Pro American Ally , which is detrimental to U .S . National Security
Interests ; 2 ) The Arab Spring leads to internal conflict and Regime Change of Anti -American
regime , which produces a positive change in US National Security Interests ; and 3 ) The Arab
Spring leads to a protracted civil war and national dismemberment , which harms US National
Security Interests in the region . A thorough analysis of these three possibilities as led to a
key realization .
The relative stability of Algeria , Tunisia and Morocco is a definite positive aspect of the
post -Arab Spring transition . However , there is still significant instability in Libya as well as
Al Qaeda in the Maghreb’s (AQIM ) continued capability to operate from Mali and southern
Algeria . This will make the Maghreb region a potential flash point in Arab -Western
relations , and it therefore also makes the Maghreb a region of strategic interest to the United
States . |