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Description:
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Our understanding of parliamentary politics suggests that no -confidence motions
have a critical place in government continuation , reorganization and termination . More
specifically , we know that opposition parties use no -confidence motions as a way of
removing the government and potentially inducing early elections . Up until now , we
know little about either the causes or the consequences of no -confidence motions .
In this dissertation , I first develop a formal model of the conditions under which
an opposition party will threaten to propose (and eventually propose ) a no -confidence
motion in the government . The model provides a number of intuitive observations about
the behavior of opposition parties and the reactions of governments to challenges . I
develop a competence -based theory where opposition parties signal their perception of
the government's competence with no -confidence motions . In the game , opposition
parties act both in terms of short -term gains as well as long -term electoral gains . This
model provides intuitive answers that help us understand the circumstances under which
the opposition will challenge the government . The model also provides empirical expectations regarding the probability that the motion is successful , in addition to its
long -term electoral consequences .
Next , I test the theoretical propositions regarding the occurrence of noconfidence
motions on a cross -sectional time -series data set of all no -confidence motions
in a sample of parliamentary democracies in the post -World War II era . Even though
successful no -confidence motions are relatively rare , they can have profound
consequences on policy outcomes . The next section illustrates these consequences , as I
find that having a no -confidence motion proposed against them makes governments
more likely to be targeted by other states in international conflicts . In the conclusion I
summarize the key findings , present the broad implications for the study of
parliamentary decision making , and discuss avenues for future research . |