Three Essays on International Agricultural Trade

There are many factors that affect international agricultural trade. One of them is international transportation costs. Another important factor is non-tariff barriers such as sanitary and phytosanitary regulations caused by animal disease outbreaks. The main purpose of this dissertation was to analyze how these factors interfere in the international agricultural trade by examining three cases.

In Chapter II, a spatial price equilibrium model of the international cotton sector was utilized to evaluate the effects of the Panama Canal expansion (PCE) on the world cotton industry. Three scenarios were evaluated by reducing ocean freight rates from U.S. Gulf and Atlantic ports to Asian destinations. All scenarios suggested that cotton exports from U.S. Gulf and Atlantic ports would considerably increase. On the other hand, the West Coast ports decreased its participation in total U.S. cotton exports. Overall, total U.S. cotton exports were expected to increase due to the PCE.

By using the same model which was used in Chapter II, the third chapter analyzes port improvements in Brazil. By March of 2012, the port of Salvador is expected to have undergone relevant improvements. As a result, the port of Salvador is expected to attract ocean shipping companies which are willing to export directly to Asian importing markets. Scenarios with different reductions in cotton export cost for this port were examined. In general, results indicated a shift in Brazil cotton export flows from the port of Santos to the port of Salvador as well as an increase in exports and producer revenues for the country.

Finally, in Chapter IV, the impacts of the 2005 FMD outbreak on the Brazilian meat market was examined. The imposition of an import ban by Russia on Brazilian meat exports was also investigated. By using time series methods, it was found that the outbreak along with the import ban caused a temporary negative price shock to the Brazilian meat market. Export pork and export chicken prices were found to not fully recover after the removal of the import ban by Russia. On the other hand, the export beef price was indicated to undergo a complete recovery.