Uncertainty quantification of volumetric and material balance analysis of gas reservoirs with water influx using a Bayesian framework

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Title: Uncertainty quantification of volumetric and material balance analysis of gas reservoirs with water influx using a Bayesian framework
Author: Aprilia, Asti Wulandari
Abstract: Accurately estimating hydrocarbon reserves is important , because it affects every phase of the oil and gas business . Unfortunately , reserves estimation is always uncertain , since perfect information is seldom available from the reservoir , and uncertainty can complicate the decision -making process . Many important decisions have to be made without knowing exactly what the ultimate outcome will be from a decision made today . Thus , quantifying the uncertainty is extremely important . Two methods for estimating original hydrocarbons in place (OHIP ) are volumetric and material balance methods . The volumetric method is convenient to calculate OHIP during the early development period , while the material balance method can be used later , after performance data , such as pressure and production data , are available . In this work , I propose a methodology for using a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainty of original gas in place (G ) , aquifer productivity index (J ) , and the volume of the aquifer (Wi ) as a result of combining volumetric and material balance analysis in a water -driven gas reservoir . The results show that we potentially have significant non -uniqueness (i .e . , large uncertainty ) when we consider only volumetric analyses or material balance analyses . By combining the results from both analyses , the non -uniqueness can be reduced , resulting in OGIP and aquifer parameter estimates with lower uncertainty . By understanding the uncertainty , we can expect better management decision making .
URI: http : / /hdl .handle .net /1969 .1 /4998
Date: 2007-04-25

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Uncertainty quantification of volumetric and material balance analysis of gas reservoirs with water influx using a Bayesian framework. Available electronically from http : / /hdl .handle .net /1969 .1 /4998 .

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