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Abstract:
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The manner in which the United States understands the background, motivations, and
aspirations of the participants in the Arab Spring within the Maghreb Region will have
significant implications for the development of future National Security Policy.
In an effort to better quantify this understanding, this work presents an analysis of the
following three alternative scenarios: 1) The Arab Spring leads to internal conflict and
Regime Change of Pro American Ally, which is detrimental to U.S. National Security
Interests; 2) The Arab Spring leads to internal conflict and Regime Change of Anti-American
regime, which produces a positive change in US National Security Interests; and 3) The Arab
Spring leads to a protracted civil war and national dismemberment, which harms US National
Security Interests in the region. A thorough analysis of these three possibilities as led to a
key realization.
The relative stability of Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco is a definite positive aspect of the
post-Arab Spring transition. However, there is still significant instability in Libya as well as
Al Qaeda in the Maghreb’s (AQIM) continued capability to operate from Mali and southern
Algeria. This will make the Maghreb region a potential flash point in Arab-Western
relations, and it therefore also makes the Maghreb a region of strategic interest to the United
States. |